Space missions don’t always end quietly. Sometimes, years after completing their job, spacecraft make one last dramatic move, a fiery return to Earth. That’s exactly what is expected to happen with one of NASA’s old satellites today.
A spacecraft called ‘Van Allen Probe A,’ which has been circling Earth for more than a decade, is predicted to re-enter the planet’s atmosphere. While the idea of a satellite falling from space may sound alarming, experts say there is almost no risk to people on the ground. What is happening today? Fragments of a NASA satellite weighing around 600 kg (about 1,323 pounds) are expected to fall back toward Earth as the spacecraft re-enters the atmosphere. According to the US Space Force, the satellite is predicted to re-enter at around 7:45 pm EDT (5:15 am IST the next day) on March 10, 2026. However, scientists say the timing is not exact and may vary by about 24 hours. As the satellite plunges through the atmosphere, the intense heat and friction will cause most of the spacecraft to burn up before reaching the ground. Only a few stronger pieces may survive the fall. NASA says the probability of someone being harmed is extremely low. According to information on NASA’s website: The odds of someone being injured are roughly 1 in 4,200. NASA and the US Space Force are continuing to track the satellite’s descent and may update the timing if needed. A mission that lasted much longer than planned The spacecraft returning today was part of a pair of satellites launched by NASA in 2012. Both probes, Van Allen Probe A and Van Allen Probe B, were sent into space on August 30, 2012, from Cape Canaveral. Their job was to study the Van Allen radiation belts, which are zones of highly charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field. These radiation belts can affect satellites, astronauts, and communication systems, so understanding them is important for space missions. The probes were originally designed to work for two years, but they exceeded expectations. Instead, they kept operating for almost seven years, gathering valuable scientific data before finally running out of fuel in 2019. Once the fuel was exhausted, the spacecraft could no longer orient themselves properly toward the Sun, which was necessary to keep their systems powered. Also read: Are we thinking less because of AI?:62% of business leaders rely on chatbots for their work
Why is the satellite falling earlier than expected? Scientists originally believed the satellites would remain in orbit until around 2034. However, the spacecraft’s orbit gradually changed over time due to increased solar activity. In 2024, researchers confirmed that the Sun had reached solar maximum, the most active phase of its cycle. During this period, the Sun releases more energy and solar storms, which can affect Earth’s upper atmosphere. The increased activity caused the atmosphere to expand slightly, creating stronger atmospheric drag on satellites orbiting Earth. This drag gradually pulled the spacecraft closer to Earth, causing it to descend sooner than expected. What about the second satellite? While Van Allen Probe A is expected to fall back to Earth now, its twin satellite Van Allen Probe B is still orbiting the planet. Scientists believe the second probe will remain in space for several more years and is expected to re-enter the atmosphere later this decade. Even though the mission officially ended in 2019, both probes provided scientists with unprecedented insights into Earth’s radiation environment, helping researchers better understand how space weather affects satellites and astronauts. Also read: Your next smartphone could cost more but offer less RAM
Should people be concerned? Events like satellite re-entries might sound dramatic, but they are not unusual. Thousands of pieces of space debris and retired spacecraft re-enter Earth’s atmosphere every year. In most cases, they burn up completely before reaching the ground. Even when small fragments survive, they usually fall into oceans or uninhabited areas. So while the satellite’s return marks the final chapter of an important NASA mission, experts say there is little reason for concern on Earth.
