“I love Donald Trump as much as a straight man can love another man,” Elon Musk posted in February. Fast forward to Friday, and the US President called the SpaceX chief “a man who has lost his mind.” Between those two quotes, not just the seasons in the United States, winter to spring, but also the heat between the “world’s most powerful man” and the world’s richest man has soared. Trump threatened to pull National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) contracts from the private space agency. Musk, in turn, has threatened to pause his Dragon capsule rides that transport astronauts to the International Space Station. Sure, there’s a hint of a thaw now. But with these two “alpha egos”, the next ‘X post’ or ‘Truth post’ could send things spinning again. Here’s why — fireworks aside — Nick Fury (okay, you may argue Trump isn’t S.H.I.E.L.D.’s director) still needs his Tony Stark (come on, Musk even cameoed in Iron Man 2) if America wants to break past the Kármán line. SpaceX: Made by Nasa, now threat to Nasa SpaceX nearly went bankrupt in 2008 after three failed rocket launches. Musk was out of money and had to choose between saving SpaceX or Tesla. Then, just two days before Christmas, NASA awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract to fly cargo to the International Space Station — saving the company. Musk later said he cried when he got the news. At the time, he was dating actress Talulah Riley and hadn’t bought her a Christmas gift. “I ran down the street in Boulder to the only store still open. The best I could find were these plastic monkeys with coconuts — the ‘see no evil, hear no evil’ kind,” Ashlee Vance, author of the 2015 biography Elon Musk, writes. Nasa’s support helped SpaceX build the Falcon 9 rocket and cargo capsule. Back then, SpaceX—short for Space Exploration Technologies Corporation—was a small, little-known company that hadn’t yet launched anything into orbit. Now, SpaceX is so successful that it poses a threat to Nasa. When Musk led DoGE, the Trump administration’s big cost-cutting mission, he pushed for Nasa budget cuts and layoffs. The plan also aimed to cancel Moon missions after Artemis 3 because SpaceX’s cheaper rockets make Nasa’s costly SLS rocket hard to justify. Like their rocky bromance, the ongoing fight between Musk and Trump isn’t doing the federal agency any favours. Trump dropped Musk’s friend Jared Isaacman as Nasa chief, and the agency still has no permanent administrator. Cancelling SpaceX contracts could make things worse for it. The problem is Nasa now depends heavily on SpaceX to send astronauts and cargo to space and the Moon. If this clash grows, Nasa’s plans could be at risk. SpaceX: The new Godfather of space? SpaceX now clearly dominates space launches. Since 2008, it has completed 496 missions, with 457 landings and 424 reflights — now reaching 1–3 launches a week. To get a sense, compare it with India’s ISRO. It has done a total of 101 launches since 1979. If you look at just one year of US launches, SpaceX handled 138 out of 145—that’s a huge 95% of all American space missions, calculates astronomer Jonathan McDowell in his 2024 Space Report. Right now, SpaceX is Nasa’s only reliable ride to ISS SpaceX’s Crew Dragon is the only US spacecraft that regularly takes astronauts and cargo to the ISS, a multinational space station orbiting Earth at about 450 km. If Musk decommissions it, the ISS could be in serious trouble. Nasa used to use its space shuttles to transport astronauts but retired them in 2011. After that, it relied on Russia’s Soyuz capsules. Nasa then funded SpaceX and Boeing to build their crew capsules. SpaceX’s Dragon started flying in 2020, while Boeing’s Starliner has faced problems. In its first crewed flight in 2024, Starliner left two astronauts, including Sunita Williams, stranded on the ISS. SpaceX’s Dragon had to be sent to bring them back. Russia’s Soyuz is still flying but only fits three people. Dragon can carry up to seven. Soyuz flights usually take two Russians and one Nasa astronaut. Dragon launches often carry one Russian and a full Nasa crew. While companies like Northrop Grumman and ULA send cargo, when it comes to astronauts, Nasa’s only real option right now is SpaceX. SpaceX has the key to moon landing SpaceX is also a key player in Nasa’s Artemis programme, which plans to send astronauts to the Moon again after 50 years. The goal is to build a base on the Moon and later go to Mars. Nasa will send astronauts on its new Orion spacecraft, launched by the powerful SLS rocket. Orion will dock at a small space station called Gateway, which orbits the Moon. From there, astronauts will take a lander — SpaceX’s Starship for Artemis 3 and Blue Origin’s lander for Artemis 4 — to reach the Moon’s surface. Experts say using two systems makes the mission more costly. They suggest using only Starship. Before Artemis, SpaceX had a plan to fly astronauts directly from Earth to the Moon and back using Starship. Elon Musk shared this plan in 2017. It involved refuelling Starship in space, landing on the Moon, and returning safely to Earth. Using both SLS/Orion and Starship makes Artemis missions nearly 10 times more expensive, says aerospace expert Gerald Black. Nasa should stop using SLS and Orion after Artemis 3 and rely only on Starship, he adds in a paper published by The Science Review. But Starship is not ready yet. SLS completed its first lunar mission in December 2022. Cut Musk, risk defence mix Ending Elon Musk’s defence contracts could deal a big blow to US military plans. Take Starlink, for example. The satellite network is a lifeline for US allies, such as Ukraine. When Russian attacks knocked out phone networks and cables, SpaceX quickly sent Starlink terminals to get Ukraine back online. But Musk controls how the service is used. In 2022, he limited access to stop Ukraine from targeting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Then there are SpaceX’s Falcon rockets. The US’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) programme relies on them to send spy satellites and other critical government payloads into space. United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan is the only other rocket approved, but it faces a delay and was certified in March. According to the new contracts, SpaceX will handle ~60% of launches between 2025-2029. SpaceX is also in the spotlight for building the “Golden Dome”. Trump calls it a “massive anti-missile shield in space” designed to protect the US from what he describes as “the most catastrophic threat we (US) face — missile strikes.” According to a month-old report from Reuters, SpaceX will team up with Palantir and Anduril to build its key parts. Though Musk then said SpaceX hasn’t bid for any Golden Dome contracts yet, he added: “If the President asks us to help, we will do so.” Key to future missions SpaceX has around $22 billion in government contracts, according to a Reuters report. Here’s a look at some of their big future missions. Nick Fury told Tony Stark in Iron Man, “You think you’re the only superhero in the world?” Years later, in Avengers: Endgame, Stark famously signed off, proving his worth: “And I am Iron Man.” Trump’s moves often shake things up. If he cuts SpaceX contracts, the space world could face fresh turbulence. Space enthusiasts may soon be hoping for a moment when Nick Fury sends that pager message again: “We need you.” This time, to his Iron Man — Elon Musk.
