Could AI help India detect the next pandemic early?:World’s top scientists discuss warning systems, new medicines

Can signs of a new pandemic be detected before it spreads? Can data from different hospitals, laboratories and health agencies be integrated to identify the risk of an infection in time? Is climate change increasing the threat of infectious diseases? These questions were discussed by leading scientists from across the world at Nature Conference India 2026, held in Manipal, Karnataka, from 14 to 16 October. Experts at the conference, organised at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), shared their views on infectious disease surveillance, new diagnostic technologies, vaccines and preparedness for the next pandemic. Dr Lauren Gardner, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who played a key role in developing the widely followed COVID-19 tracking dashboard during the pandemic, said India needs to develop an integrated system to bring together health-related data.
While accurately predicting a new pandemic is difficult, a strong surveillance system backed by reliable data can help identify early signs of an infection. Tools such as wastewater testing, genomic surveillance, and artificial intelligence (AI) can support these efforts. This could help contain small outbreaks before they develop into major epidemics. Dr Rada Savic, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco, spoke about ongoing research into reducing TB treatment to three to four months, developing long-acting injections and medicines that can provide protection through a single dose.
Meanwhile, Professor Shabir A. Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand said vaccines have helped reduce severe cases of pneumonia and deaths among children. Professor Marion Koopmans of Erasmus Medical Centre in the Netherlands warned that climate change could cause diseases such as dengue and malaria to spread to new regions. AI and data can help detect early signs of infections Dr Gardner said collecting data alone is not enough to prepare for a pandemic. Data from different sources must also be integrated and analysed in a timely manner. According to her, India needs an integrated system to bring together health-related data. Regular wastewater testing can help detect early signs of infections in an area. Genomic surveillance can track changes in viruses, while AI can analyse this data to identify areas that may be at risk. However, the success of these technologies depends on accurate and reliable data at the local level. A strong surveillance system can help detect small outbreaks in time and enable authorities to take appropriate action. Patient-specific strategies could shorten TB treatment According to Dr Savic, treatment for drug-sensitive TB usually lasts six months, while drug-resistant TB may require an even longer course. One of the challenges in reducing treatment duration is that patients are often given similar treatment regimens despite differences in their medical conditions. She said patients need to be classified into different categories based on the severity of the disease, lung damage, nutritional status, and other health conditions. Shorter treatment courses may be possible for patients with less severe infections. This could also reduce the side effects of medicines and difficulties associated with prolonged treatment. According to her, AI and mathematical models can help assess different combinations of medicines and their dosages. Efforts are also underway to reduce the time required to develop new drugs from 12-15 years to 6-7 years. Research is continuing to develop treatments that could bring the duration of TB therapy down to three or four months, along with long-acting injections and preventive medicines that provide protection through a single dose. Vaccines reduce pneumonia risk among children; focus now on RSV
Professor Madhi said vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) and pneumococcal infections have helped reduce severe pneumonia cases and related deaths among children over the past two decades. However, pneumonia can be caused by several types of viruses and bacteria. Therefore, a child may still develop pneumonia even after vaccination. This does not mean the vaccine has failed. The primary purpose of vaccination is to protect against severe forms of the disease and related deaths. Madhi also discussed the role of RSV vaccines administered to pregnant women. These vaccines can help protect infants against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections during the first six months after birth. He said India needs to expand childhood vaccination coverage and ensure that newer vaccines reach more people. Parents should consult doctors and nurses about vaccination-related concerns rather than rely on misleading information circulating on social media. Surveillance of infections spreading from animals to humans is also essential
Professor Koopmans said that when a new infection emerges, the first priority should be to establish the capacity to test for and monitor it. This can help identify how the disease spreads and which groups are most vulnerable. For this, epidemiologists, laboratory personnel, veterinarians, and experts working on mosquitoes need to collaborate. Monitoring viruses such as bird flu in wild birds, collecting feathers for testing, and using bird-tracking apps are among the methods that can help identify early warning signs. She said climate change is altering temperature and rainfall patterns. This can create favourable conditions for mosquitoes to breed and allow diseases such as dengue and malaria to spread to new regions. Therefore, apart from identifying high-risk areas, community participation is also essential to eliminate mosquito breeding sites. Antibiotic resistance remains a major challenge Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was another key topic discussed at the conference. It refers to the reduced effectiveness of medicines such as antibiotics against bacteria and other microorganisms. Experts shared research on bacteria such as Klebsiella pneumoniae and new approaches to treating TB. AMR can make infections difficult to treat even when they were previously responsive to commonly used antibiotics. Experts stressed the need to develop new medicines while ensuring the appropriate use of antibiotics and strengthening infection surveillance. The conference also discussed HPV testing and vaccination, along with the development of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases. Pandemic preparedness requires a One Health approach Experts stressed the need to adopt a One Health approach, which recognises that human, animal and environmental health are interconnected. Challenges such as infections spreading from animals to humans, climate change, shifting mosquito habitats and antimicrobial resistance need to be understood together rather than addressed in isolation. MAHE Vice-Chancellor Dr Sharath K. Rao said collaboration among scientists from different disciplines and continued research are essential to tackling infectious diseases. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Righetto, senior editor at Nature Health, said a better understanding of infections would require simultaneous efforts to study new pathogens, drug resistance and environmental factors.